Europe and UK. Brexit Yes or No??

There has a lot of changes in world dynamics lately. One of the major changes is Britain chose to leave the European Union. A landmark referendum was held in more than 52% of people voted in the favor of Brexit forcing David Cameron to resign. Theresa May became the prime minister with the promise to have a satisfying Brexit deal with the European Union. But recent election shows that people are now not favoring the exit from the European Union. Theresa May's party performed badly in the election and therefore further reducing her party's power in the parliament. Theresa May also resigned due failure to exit European Union. Now can the new Prime minister Boris Johnson be able to force Brexit? Can Britain leave the European Union by January 2020?

  • European Union:

  • It is a block of 28 countries. These countries are closely related to each other through socio-economy. They have no borders. No visa is required to travel between these countries. There is a parliament of these countries which discuss different policies related to countries. They also have the same currency Euro. Thus these countries are closely related to each other. European Union was formed to prevent war between countries by making them dependant on each other. Great Britain is the only member with different currency and the European Parliament has no role in Great Britain.
  • What is Brexit?

  • Brexit is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Following a June 2016 referendum, in which 51.9% voted to leave, the UK government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, starting a two-year process that was due to conclude with the UK withdrawing on 29 March 2019
  • Detail Of Referendum:

  • The decision to hold a referendum for the exit was taken in 2015. A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on Thursday 23 June 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting. England voted for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%. Wales also voted for Brexit, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave. This paved the way for David Cameron who was not supporting the exit to resign and Theresa May took over. She belonged to the conservative party which was lobbying for the Brexit.
  • Under Theresa May Era:

  • Although May wanted to have a good deal before leaving the Union, the deal she is seeking would never happen. Secondly, Northern Ireland also wants to remain part of the block because it has a border with the European countries. Northern Ireland wants to have free access to European countries and that's what Theresa May was not willing to do. Scotland also wants the same. According to my analysis, the European Union does feel disturbed due to Britain's exit in economic and as well in social ways and that also goes for Britain because its trade with 27 countries will be affected too. So there is a drop in the value of the sterling pound and a rise in inflation in Britain. Although there is a deadlock between the negotiators of both sides and there is a growing probability that the exit would be without a deal but I don't agree that I believe both parties will try hard to gain something benefits from this exit. They may delay the exit but I believe this will not be a no deal exit. But Theresa May failed as well to get a good deal. She resigned leaving the matter of Brexit still unresolved. Now the prime minister is Boris Johnson who is a hard supporter of Brexit but he is in hot water too.
  • Under Boris Johnson:

  • Johnson has pledged to negotiate a new Brexit divorce deal with the EU to secure before Oct. 31. But if the bloc refuses, as it insists it will, he has promised to leave anyway - "do or die" - on Halloween. Johnson is of the view that Brexit is needed to be done as early as possible and that a deal is not must for Britain to leave the bloc. It can leave the union without the deal. Boris has recently struck a deal with European union in which it has been decided that Northern Ireland would be part of Union customs law and single goods market. Boris believes that Britain would be well off with this deal but the Parliament has blocked this deal. Boris has even threatened of no-deal exit in order to gain support from the MPs for his deal but he failed.
  • Brexit Deal Under Boris:

  • 1. The UK would be able to sign and implement its own trade agreements with countries around the world. 2. The revised plan effectively creates a customs and regulatory border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. This means some goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain would have to pay EU import taxes (known as tariffs). 3. These would be refunded if goods remain in Northern Ireland (ie are not moved to the Republic of Ireland). 4. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and British citizens in the EU 5. How much money the UK is to pay the EU (initially thought to be £39bn).
  • Issues of Brexit deal:

  • 1. The deal for Northern Ireland to remain in Union custom and the single good zone is dangerous for Britain because this would further complicate the matters of Ireland and would push towards Ireland unification. 2. Secondly, due to northern Ireland, Scotland can also demand the same deal. 3. There would be a great economic recession in Britain if it leaves without a good deal with the European Union. The economic issues are very major and serious. 4. European Union does not want to give to many leverages to Britain. So it also wants to strike a deal which is better for the European bloc. 5. Britain's political parties are divided since no party is in a vast majority so any commendable action cant be taken.
  • What Next:

  • Following are the Options: 1. The short bill of Early elections was introduced by the Conservative party in order to gather support for a clear Brexit and it was passed clearly stating 12 December as the election date. It follows the confirmation of a Brexit delay until 31 January 2020 after the EU agreed to the UK's extension request. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had previously said the UK would leave by 31 October "do or die". He has agreed a deal with the EU but the bill implementing it has been put on hold. It will now not progress before the general election. 2. The second option is that implement the deal negotiated by Boris which was rejected by Parliament. 3. There could also be another referendum although it would certainly require a further Brexit delay. The referendum could have the same legal status as the one in 2016. It would be advisory, and the government would have to decide how to respond once the result was known. 4. The last option is no Brexit deal, the UK will leave the EU without one on 31 January 2020. Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier.
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